Forecast price curve
Where available the known regional reference price (RRP Region Reference Price. Spot price at the regional reference node.) is used. For the forecast price curve, three scenarios are used to provide the required forecast price curves.
Table 33 Forecast price bands
|
POE |
Description |
Stage 1 |
Stage 2 |
Stage 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10% |
High forecast price curve |
Actual RRP where available. |
P5 then Pre-dispatch sensitivity 27 |
1.1 x maximum of the last 5 like-periods |
|
50% |
Mid forecast price curve |
Actual RRP where available. |
P5 then Pre-dispatch |
Median price of the last 3 like-periods |
|
90% |
Low forecast price curve |
Actual RRP where available. |
P5 then Pre-dispatch Sensitivity 28 |
0.7 x Median price of the last 3 like-periods |
Notes:
- POE Probability of Exceedance. A generalised approach to defining the probability of exceedance of electricity demand forecasts. It means the likelihood of a forecast being met or exceeded, and is expressed as a percentage (10%, 50% or 90%), or as a 1-in-2, 1-in-10, or 1-in-20 years probability. is the probability of the actual price exceeding the forecast price.
- Stage 1 refers to periods where an RRP is available.
- Stage 2 refers to periods where an RRP is not available, but a pre-dispatch solution exists.
- Stage 3 refers to periods where neither an RRP or pre-dispatch price is available.