Demand Forecasts
Goal
The information provided by AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator to Distributors under the Wholesale Market Distribution Operation Procedures includes demand forecasts at each CTM, or group of CTMs that is defined as the demand node in the NGR National Gas Rules. The rules made under the NGL. They govern access to natural gas pipeline services and elements of broader natural gas markets..
High-level changes
|
Function |
Description |
Reference |
|---|---|---|
|
MIBB reports |
New and updated MIBB reports |
In development |
INT240 Disaggregated Demand Forecasts
|
Trigger type |
|
Time triggered |
|---|---|---|
|
Published |
|
10 minutes past the hour |
|
Audience |
|
Distributors |
|
Output file name |
|
int240_v[n]_disaggregated_demand_forecasts_[p]~yyyymmddhhmmss.csv |
This report is created at 10 minutes past the hour. The report provides an hourly demand forecast by CTM or CTM group, as required under the Wholesale Market Distribution Operational Coordination Procedures. Refer to INT241 for specification of the Disaggregated Demand The amount of power consumed at any time Forecast CTM Groups.
A Distributor The term DNSP is used in favour of Distributor in the B2B Procedures. uses the demand forecasts in the DDS constraints methodology to determine a distribution supply and demand point constraints for a distribution connected facility.
Audience notes
This demand forecast is a separate forecast to INT153 Demand Forecast.
Content notes
The report provides details of all the demand forecasts created up to the report generation time on the current gas day.
A report contains demand forecasts for:
-
The current day
-
1-day ahead
-
2-days ahead
A distributor can only view their relevant disaggregated demand forecasts.
Data content
|
Name |
Data type |
No nulls |
Primary key |
CQ |
Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
forecast_date |
Varchar(20) |
True |
True |
N |
Gas date of forecast e.g. 30 June 2007 |
|
mirn |
Varchar(10) |
True |
True |
N |
Meter Installation Registration Number
|
|
ti |
Integer |
True |
True |
N |
Time interval (1-24) |
|
forecast_demand_gj |
Integer |
False |
False |
Y |
forecast total hourly demand (in GJ/hour) |
|
current_date |
Varchar(20) |
True |
False |
N |
Date and time report produced |
INT241 Disaggregated Demand Forecasts CTM Groups
|
Trigger type |
Event triggered |
|---|---|
|
Published |
Update to CTM groups |
|
Audience |
Distributors |
|
Output file name |
int241_v[n]_disaggregated_ctm_group_[p]~yyyymmddhhmmss.csv |
Report purpose
Multiple meters feeding a single distribution network are forecast as a group. This report identifies the CTMs used in each of the forecasting CTM groups. This report is updated when there is a change to the CTMs in the forecasting groups. The report provides mapping of individual CTMs to CTM group.
Audience notes
CTM groups are only used in the demand forecasts provided in INT153a Disaggregated Demand Forecasts. They are not used in INT153 Demand Forecast.
Content notes
This report is generated when AEMO updates the group mapping used to produce disaggregated demand forecasts.
A distributor can only view their relevant CTMs.
Data content
|
Name |
Data type |
No nulls |
Primary key |
CQ |
Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ctm_group |
Varchar(20) |
True |
True |
N |
ctm_group name used in INT153a |
|
mirn |
Varchar(10) |
True |
True |
N |
Meter Installation Registration Number |
|
effective_from |
Varchar(20) |
True |
False |
N |
Date last changed |
|
current_date |
Varchar(20) |
True |
False |
N |
Date and Time report generated For example 30 Jun 2007 06:00:00 |
INT126 - DFS Data
|
Trigger type |
Event triggered |
|---|---|
|
Published |
Production of nodal demand forecast |
|
Audience |
Public |
|
Output file name |
int126_v[n]_dfs_data_[p]~yyyymmddhhmmss.csv |
Report purpose
This report provides AEMO's calculated effective temperature, effective degree day Energy Rules Terms(EDD Effective Degree Day) and total system demand forecast (representing system demand and site specific demand) for the DWGM Declared Wholesale Gas Market. A Victorian gas market that allows trading on injections and withdrawals from the Declared Transmission System (DTS). from AEMO's Demand Forecasting System (DFS Demand Forecasting System).
This data can be used to validate forecasting methodologies against AEMO's DFS. It is also used to validate AEMO’s demand forecast where there has been a demand override in the scheduling process.
Audience notes
Not every demand generated by the AEMO DFS is used in the scheduling process. Participants should reference INT108 Schedule Run Log to determine the Demand Forecasts used for each schedule Energy Rules Terms.
The INT108 forecast_demand_version identifies the forecast used by AEMO in generating a schedule.
Content notes
This report contains data for:
-
the current gas day
-
1-day ahead
-
2 days ahead
-
the previous 7 days.
Each report therefore can contain data for up to 10 days.
Each row of the report contains data for one generated nodal forecast.
From 15 April 2024, AEMO has a new weather forecast data provider, so the following fields will be NULL:
-
previous_day_min
-
max
-
overnight_min
-
average_wind_speed
-
sunshine
Data content
|
Name |
Data type |
No nulls |
Primary key |
CQ |
Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
dfs_version |
integer . |
True |
True |
N |
Demand forecast version |
|
gas_date |
varchar 20. |
True |
True |
N |
Gas Day Date temperature data applies to (e.g. 30 Jun 2007) |
|
last_update_datetime |
varchar 8. |
True |
False |
N |
Time data obtained and loaded into AEMO's database (e.g. 05:00:00) |
|
previous_day_min |
Numeric(4,1) |
False |
False |
N |
Previous day over night minimum temperature This value is NULL from 15 April 2024 |
|
max |
Numeric(4,1) |
False |
False |
N |
Daily maximum temperature This value is NULL from 15 April 2024 |
|
overnight_min |
Numeric(4,1) |
False |
False |
|
Overnight minimum temperature This value is NULL from 15 April 2024 |
|
average_wind_speed |
Numeric(4,1) |
False |
False |
N |
Average wind speed (knots) This value is NULL from 15 April 2024 |
|
sunshine |
integer . |
False |
False |
N |
Hours of sunshine This value is NULL from 15 April 2024 |
|
effective_temperature |
Numeric(3,1) |
True |
False |
Y |
Effective temperature calculated by AEMO's Demand Forecasting System (DFS). |
|
dfs_edd |
Numeric(3,1) |
True |
False |
Y |
Effective Degree Day (EDD) calculated by AEMO's Demand Forecasting System (DFS). |
|
total_demand_forecast |
integer . |
True |
False |
Y |
AEMO's total daily demand forecast for the gas day calculated by AEMO's Demand Forecasting System (DFS). |
|
current_date |
varchar 20. |
True |
False |
N |
Date and Time report produced e.g. 30 June 2005 1:23:56 |